AN IRREVOCABLE FORECAST

In my previous election forecasts of 2004 and 2007, I had concentrated on the senatorial candidates in addition to the presidential candidates. I tried to review my records but could not retrieve those I computed for the presidential race. In the 1998 elections I could only recall telling Rene de Villa, who I supported, that he would win if Estrada backs out of the race. I cannot remember who the other candidates for the presidency were at the time. On the other hand, I wrote in 2004 that GMA would win over FPJ, but by a very small margin. I remember there were also several aspirants during the elections, such as Raul Roco and Panfilo Lacson. (In this matter, I did not crow about my successful forecast because of the Hello-Garci affair which polluted the outcome.)

On the matter of the senatorial races, my post-analysis of the 2004 elections, which I published in my StarTrack blog of February 25, 2007, showed I got eight winners out of the twelve candidates I chose. On the other hand, in my blog of April 6, 2007 forecasting the May elections of that year, I got nine out of twelve I listed as sure winners. (For those who want to check my claims, they can access my blog at http://rasolina.blogspot.com.) I am bringing out these matters in order to warn my readers how “accurate” I can be in choosing winners via computing how transiting or passing planets affect the birth horoscopes of candidates. Of special mention is my forecast about Trillanes, who was almost a nobody in the various opinion surveys done during the elections of 2007.

This time, however, due to the numerous senatorial candidates, I decided to concentrate on the presidential race, although I am not after predicting how many will win, but of the nine candidates, who will prevail. I have published three attempts at solving the matter and thought that should be the end of my experimentations. My results do not tally with published poll surveys; but that does not bother me because I am using a different method – how the solar system affects electoral contests. The problem, however, is that my results do not seem to be realistic. I kept getting Teodoro as my Number One, and yet, like Trillanes, he might still prove to be a miracle. In this matter, my brother-in-law prevailed upon me to make a definitive conclusion about my forecast, so I had to review and fine-tune my algorithm. I still got Teodoro as the front runner. As well, my wife’s friend asked a very relevant question: “Do you foresee smooth sailing for the new president?” I am including my views on these matters in this write-up.

The following graph and data are my FINAL forecast for the May Elections. As I have mentioned above my accuracy is a mere 67 percent (8 out of 12) to 75 percent (9 out of 12)


Incidentally, John Carlos delos Reyes, hitherto unknown and contesting better known candidates, could be a rising star of the group. It would really be a very big surprise if he comes out better than the other contestants.

Now, regarding the question “Do you foresee smooth sailing for the new president?” I shall try to guess, assuming that Teodoro will be the new president.

As a minority president garnering a mere 14 percent of the votes, there will be no smooth sailing for him since he has a number of encumbrances to deal with in matters of education, employment, justice, etc. He has to cope with the perception that he is merely a stooge of the ex-president. Fortunately, the numerous defections during the election campaign rid him of political baggage he would have to accommodate had they not left his party. As well, there are a lot to change in the morality of this benighted country. In this his leadership style will do a lot to restore confidence in the presidency.

He will have to cope with an Opposition Senate, since his defeated rivals – namely, Villar, and Aquino -- will only continue their interrupted senatorial terms that will end in 2003. (There is also Legarda.) Unfortunately, Teodoro has a weak senatorial slate that may not make it to support him in the Senate. Hopefully, some re-elected senators will be the Opposition of his Opposition and keep the Senate in a constant civil war. How Teodoro will effectively deal with such a composition to support his programs is a test of his ability to harmonize and cope with divisiveness.

His smooth sailing will be in matters of continuing the productive economic programs of his predecessors. He does not have to re-invent the wheel, figuratively speaking. The usual behavior of new presidents is to come up with his new concepts and discard the programs or projects of “enemies” even if these are strategically beneficial for the country. He merely should enhance and make effective sans corruption what worthy plans are being implemented. In this matter, I choose and firmly believe that Bayani Fernando will do a good job as his VP “bastonero” to keep the bureaucracy moving efficiently. (Bayani will do a very good job, having 2016 in his telescopic sight.)