AN IRREVOCABLE FORECAST

In my previous election forecasts of 2004 and 2007, I had concentrated on the senatorial candidates in addition to the presidential candidates. I tried to review my records but could not retrieve those I computed for the presidential race. In the 1998 elections I could only recall telling Rene de Villa, who I supported, that he would win if Estrada backs out of the race. I cannot remember who the other candidates for the presidency were at the time. On the other hand, I wrote in 2004 that GMA would win over FPJ, but by a very small margin. I remember there were also several aspirants during the elections, such as Raul Roco and Panfilo Lacson. (In this matter, I did not crow about my successful forecast because of the Hello-Garci affair which polluted the outcome.)

On the matter of the senatorial races, my post-analysis of the 2004 elections, which I published in my StarTrack blog of February 25, 2007, showed I got eight winners out of the twelve candidates I chose. On the other hand, in my blog of April 6, 2007 forecasting the May elections of that year, I got nine out of twelve I listed as sure winners. (For those who want to check my claims, they can access my blog at http://rasolina.blogspot.com.) I am bringing out these matters in order to warn my readers how “accurate” I can be in choosing winners via computing how transiting or passing planets affect the birth horoscopes of candidates. Of special mention is my forecast about Trillanes, who was almost a nobody in the various opinion surveys done during the elections of 2007.

This time, however, due to the numerous senatorial candidates, I decided to concentrate on the presidential race, although I am not after predicting how many will win, but of the nine candidates, who will prevail. I have published three attempts at solving the matter and thought that should be the end of my experimentations. My results do not tally with published poll surveys; but that does not bother me because I am using a different method – how the solar system affects electoral contests. The problem, however, is that my results do not seem to be realistic. I kept getting Teodoro as my Number One, and yet, like Trillanes, he might still prove to be a miracle. In this matter, my brother-in-law prevailed upon me to make a definitive conclusion about my forecast, so I had to review and fine-tune my algorithm. I still got Teodoro as the front runner. As well, my wife’s friend asked a very relevant question: “Do you foresee smooth sailing for the new president?” I am including my views on these matters in this write-up.

The following graph and data are my FINAL forecast for the May Elections. As I have mentioned above my accuracy is a mere 67 percent (8 out of 12) to 75 percent (9 out of 12)


Incidentally, John Carlos delos Reyes, hitherto unknown and contesting better known candidates, could be a rising star of the group. It would really be a very big surprise if he comes out better than the other contestants.

Now, regarding the question “Do you foresee smooth sailing for the new president?” I shall try to guess, assuming that Teodoro will be the new president.

As a minority president garnering a mere 14 percent of the votes, there will be no smooth sailing for him since he has a number of encumbrances to deal with in matters of education, employment, justice, etc. He has to cope with the perception that he is merely a stooge of the ex-president. Fortunately, the numerous defections during the election campaign rid him of political baggage he would have to accommodate had they not left his party. As well, there are a lot to change in the morality of this benighted country. In this his leadership style will do a lot to restore confidence in the presidency.

He will have to cope with an Opposition Senate, since his defeated rivals – namely, Villar, and Aquino -- will only continue their interrupted senatorial terms that will end in 2003. (There is also Legarda.) Unfortunately, Teodoro has a weak senatorial slate that may not make it to support him in the Senate. Hopefully, some re-elected senators will be the Opposition of his Opposition and keep the Senate in a constant civil war. How Teodoro will effectively deal with such a composition to support his programs is a test of his ability to harmonize and cope with divisiveness.

His smooth sailing will be in matters of continuing the productive economic programs of his predecessors. He does not have to re-invent the wheel, figuratively speaking. The usual behavior of new presidents is to come up with his new concepts and discard the programs or projects of “enemies” even if these are strategically beneficial for the country. He merely should enhance and make effective sans corruption what worthy plans are being implemented. In this matter, I choose and firmly believe that Bayani Fernando will do a good job as his VP “bastonero” to keep the bureaucracy moving efficiently. (Bayani will do a very good job, having 2016 in his telescopic sight.)

TEODORO: THE FILIPINO MESSIAH?

My previous efforts, which I chose to publish in my blog StarTrack, were to determine the presidential candidate who is most likely to lead in the May 10 elections. The different approaches I took in computing the estimated outcomes gave some divergent results depending on the factors I utilized. As I have mentioned earlier, my most difficult problem was in determining the birth times of the candidates. I have to resort to doing researches on their life histories and somehow trying to give dates to the various significant incidents in their lives.

My tries somehow gave a very distinctive place to a particular candidate: Gilbert Teodoro. Although the other candidates landed in different places in the lineup, somehow Teodoro continues to maintain the leading position. He was always Number One. I myself could not reconcile the actual fact of his being Number Four in most of the opinion surveys conducted during the campaign period with his being Number One in my computations. His being Number One in my three attempts to fine-tune the results brainwashed me to accept him as my choice (at the start of my computational experimentation I had tentatively chose one other candidate, although not the front-runners). I have also noted his novel style of campaigning, without resorting to demeaning his political rivals but focusing on what we can expect from his method and style of governance. He has so far followed the rules; he has not overspent nor exceeded the air time allowed by the law.

Fortunately, my sister-in-law was able to get his actual birth data at 10:25 p.m. on June 14, 1964. This time, I shall write about his astrological character analysis to determine if he really is worth being our President without his having to engage in objectionable techniques of winning. Given the published public pulse, I have my own misgivings but then I believe in miracles. We, Filipinos, deserve the leaders we choose. I hope that this May Elections will give us the opportunity to select a President who can bring us out of the depths of despair. And given my own study of Teodoro, I have faith that in choosing him we shall be saved.

So as not to be accused of biased analysis, I shall borrow the astrological interpretations of a software, Solar Fire, sans its jargon, to highlight the qualities of Gilberto TEODORO:

“You are gentle, loving and charming. You express yourself in an affectionate manner and enjoy the company of other people. You also have a love of art and beauty. You can be idealistic and easily hurt… You have much empathy for other people's suffering and may become a healer or counselor… You have so many original thoughts and ideas that you find it difficult to capture them on paper… You are focused on your own thoughts and opinions and may not listen to others… You may find that you have an urge to express yourself through artistic avenues.

“Relationships will play an important role in your accomplishments. You need to make sure that your need to keep the peace does not hinder decisive action… You are stubborn if opposed… You have the ability to state your thoughts and ideas strongly… You are on a persistent search for the truth. You have the ability to be a loyal and wise teacher. You have a strong desire for abundance… You are a great thinker and talker. You seek ever-increasing communication networks and inspire others through your insight. You are always seeking to expand your mind.

“You are enthusiastic about so many things, and have the ambition to succeed. You naturally find yourself in leadership positions and react well to them… You are responsible and reliable, and probably somewhat cautious… You have a gift for understanding people and lending a caring hand in their times of troubles. Your sensitive and accepting nature encourages people to tell you their heartfelt problems. You may be drawn to the spiritual side of life.”

Additional to the description above, the aspects of the Fixed Stars to the natal planets of Teodoro indicate the following significances (the conjunction and the parallel add power to the planets involved):

• Aldebaran conjunct Mercury means “Success through integrity”
• Deneb Adige conjunct Saturn means “strong will, strong temper”
• Thuban conjunct Uranus means “to protect or make a treasure”
• Zuben Elgenubi conjunct Neptune means “positive social reform”
• Zosma conjunct Pluto means “A victim or a savior”
• Hamal parallel Sun means “to follow one’s own path”
• Arcturus parallel Mars means “a different approach”
• Spica parallel Saturn means “the potential for brilliance”

Despite the published surveys of various survey companies, Gilberto Teodoro may turn out to be a miracle that God will bestow on us. Miracles do not mean easy sailing; there will be a number of difficulties we have to collectively surmount. Hopefully, the process will be a purgation of the ills that have hounded us for a number of years. As our leader, Teodoro will be an appropriate inspiration for us to perform morally and well in the performance of our duties.

THE PEARSON R COEFFICIENT AND THE MAY ELECTIONS

In this essay I shall come up with a different thrust in trying to figure out how the May 10, 2010 elections will eventually turn out.

In my previous essays, I worked out estimates of how five presidential candidates will fare in terms of votes they presumably will get, ignoring the four other candidates in the process. The process I adopted was to compute the “values” of the transiting planets as they affect the planets in the natal horoscopes of the five candidates. Working on these results, I estimated how the transiting values will translate into votes. In so doing, I combined the other four as one candidate and thus came out with an unrealistic figure to complete the forty million votes all of the nine candidates will garner.

Thus, in my second attempt to calculate the votes the candidates may garner, I had to research and complete the astrological data for all of them. In this try, the lineup of the candidates changed. While, for instance, in the first attempt I got Teodoro as Number One, followed by Estrada, the second try brought Villar as the Number Two instead of Estrada. And then, as I mentioned in my last article, I could not imagine Perlas as beating Aquino III, and Madrigal ahead of Gordon.

I am thus ending my astrological computations using the effects of the transiting planets on the birth charts of the candidates, since I have run out of ideas on how to proceed. (There are other factors in astrology that I could resort to, but then I am merely bringing so much effort to bear on something I cannot influence at all. For instance, I could resort to character analysis and weigh the factors to determine how the person will fare, but, as pointed out by my brother-in-law, I could be charged with libel in case my findings do not favor the person.)

In this essay, I shall venture to find out how the candidates “correlate” with the Republic. In the parlance of statistics, I shall engage in solving the correlation between the candidates and the country. The Pearson correlation coefficient shall be my indicator of “significance” ranging from positive One to negative One (statisticians will understand my method although they can question my doing so).

Firstly, I have to convert the planetary zodiac degrees into numbers so as to make them amenable to statistical computation. Each zodiac sign is thirty degrees wide. For instance, if the Sun is at 20 degrees and 36 minutes in Sagittarius, I do the following.

Since Sagittarius is the Ninth sign in the zodiac, I subtract one from nine and multiply the total by thirty degrees. Then I add the 20 degrees and convert the 36 minutes into decimal format. Thus the Sun is at 8 times 30 plus 20.60 or 260.60. I proceeded to convert the rest of the zodiac degrees of the other planets of the participants in the exercise.

With all the coordinates of the horoscopes of the Philippines, and the nine presidential candidates, I utilized the Excel software to compute the Pearson correlation coefficients for every candidate with the country. The results are as follows:

TEODORO 0.4016
MADRIGAL 0.1908
ESTRADA 0.1829
DELOS REYES -0.0154
AQUINO -0.0196
GORDON -0.0310
VILLAR -0.2254
PERLAS -0.3708
VILLANUEVA -0.6631

I am truly surprised to see Teodoro at the head of the list, followed by Madrigal etc. (The result will be cause for rejoicing to all Gibo fans, considering the weakening of his party due to massive defections to his opponents.) I shall not attempt to translate the figures into expected votes, since there are negative values (which apparently show opposing tendencies towards the Republic). We shall see how the May 10, 2010 elections end – will the correlation between the candidates and the country indicate their relative standings?

As well, it would be interesting to study past candidates and their resonances with the country.

ELECTIONS 2010 – LAST PART

In my previous “astrological” forecast, I concentrated only on five presidential candidates. The effort somehow showed my bias towards those whom I thought mattered.

As I explained in those forecasts, I had to research on their life histories since I must have their birth times; the various websites I went through merely indicated their dates and places of birth. Without the time of birth, no horoscope (or view of the hour) can be cast.

There is a method by which to determine times of birth, but the procedure is time consuming and a test of patience. In order to proceed, the researcher must come up with the significant events in the life history of his subject, such as dates of the deaths of loved ones, marriages, births of offsprings, appointments to top positions, etc. And then for every hypothesized time of birth, he has to test every event for significant planetary passages. Often times, to shortcut the process, so-called "solar charts" are computed, either by placing the Sun on the Rising Sign or the Midheaven. This method has also its limitations.

Fortunately, there is a software, JigSaw2, that lessens the tedium of going through the algorithms involved. Still the significant events are utilized, but then the process of testing them becomes faster.

My foray into the “rectification” of the five candidates I mentioned in my previous forecasts forced me to do researches on their lives. As I said above, this selective method betrays my apparent bias. I must correct the impression that, like opinion surveys, I do not care about the other candidates. Such impression does not do justice to my pretensions of being coldly analytical using mathematical procedures to support my findings. Then, I had to go through the process of collecting the significant events of the four other candidates.

To complete my research, these are the following birth data I obtained from JigSaw2 and used in my study of the 2010 elections. For those who know, they are free to correct my figures.

BENIGNO AQUINO III – 11:14 p.m., February 8, 1960, Manila, 14N35’ 121E00’
JOSEPH ESTRADA – 4:38 a.m., April 19, 1937, Manila, 14N35’ 121E00’
RICHARD GORDON – 4:13 a.m. August 5, 1945, Castillejos, Zambales, 14N56’ 120E12’
JAMBY MADRIGAL – 1:48 p.m., April 26, 1958, Manila, 14N35’ 121E00’
NICANOR PERLAS – 00:37 a.m., January 10, 1950, Manila, 14N35’ 121E00’
JOHN CARLOS DELOS REYES – 8:10 p.m., February 14, 1970, Olongapo City, 14N50’ 120E17’
GILBERTO TEODORO – 12:49 p.m., June 14, 1964, Manila, 14N35’ 121E00’
EDDIE VILLANUEVA – 2:44 a.m., October 6, 1946, Bocaue, Bulacan, 14N48’ 120E55’
MANUEL VILLAR – 8:25 a.m., December 13, 1949, Manila, 14N35’ 121E00’

The results of my computations are shown in the table above, based on a turnout of 40 million:

I realize that my so-called astrological forecast (without any character analysis) is rather farfetched as compared to the various results of the opinion surveys conducted during the campaign period. For instance, I cannot imagine Nick Perlas beating Noynoy Aquino, and Jamby Madrigal ahead of Dick Gordon. As well, my daughter will never forgive me for placing her favored candidate last. Much as I would like to rearrange the lineup, that would be doing a "Hello Garci" thing.

On the other hand, the character analyses done by my wife on some of the top four candidates would be an interesting reading. She interprets even the zodiac degrees of the planets in the horoscope; she has a number of books on esoteric astrology which she refers to in coming up with her astro-portraits. She may publish her character portraits in her blog at gcsolina.blogspot.com.

ELECTION FORECAST FOR 10 MAY 2010

Assuming voter turnout is 80 percent of the registered 50 million reported by COMELEC, the expected lineup of the candidates after May 10 is as shown above.
The figures are based on the results of the computations done for a previous blog.