A STUDY IN FORECASTING

Can astrology predict winners in elections?

This study attempts to use astrology in determining election winners through statistical methods. Heretofore, astrologers intuitively determine the strengths of the candidates through the planetary distribution or formations in their birth horoscopes. In the Philippines, birth data of personalities are limited to stating only their dates and places of birth. Of crucial importance is the time of birth of the person. The absence of this factor fails to give the accurate locations of the Moon, the Rising Sign and the Midheaven. Thus, in this present study, the placements of these three horoscopic factors are not included in the statistical analysis of the candidates. (By the way, two senatorial candidates are not included in the study, namely, Cesar Montano and Jamalul Kiram III, since I cannot get their birth dates. Only two candidates had birth times available – Koko Pimentel and Antonio Trillanes. These data are, however, not included in the computations.)

Several methods were followed in this study. Even as the horoscopic factors are quantified in order to make them amenable to statistical manipulation, keep in mind that three factors in the horoscopes are not included in the analysis.

One method involved the effects of the actual passages of the planets, called the transits, on the personalities during Election Day (May 14) and during Inauguration Day (June 30). The scores obtained by the candidates determine their rankings during those dates. Both the total power of the planets, and their “discordant” scores are used to give the rankings. As well, these scores are correlated, using Pearson r, with those obtained by the Philippines.

The other method is to see how the transiting planets during both dates affect the “progressed” positions of the planets of the candidates. The same process of scoring is followed. (The computational process is omitted in this report.)

The list below shows how the candidates are supposed to be in the first twelve on June 30, 2007 but not necessarily in their order.

1. Legarda, Loren of Genuine Opposition (GO)
2. Osmena, John of GO
3. Honasan, Gregorio, Independent
4. Sotto, Vicente II of TEAM
5. Aquino, Benigno III of GO
6. Zubiri, Manuel of TEAM
7. Roco, Sonia of GO
8. Arroyo, Joker of TEAM
9. Escudero, Francis of GO
10. Villar, Manuel of GO
11. Trillanes, Antonio IV of GO
12. Bautista, Martin of Kapatiran

How good will this forecast turn out for 2007?

A post-analysis of the 2004 elections may give the answer. Using the same methods described above, the table below shows how they resulted compared to the actual results of the elections. I found that the effects of the planetary transits on June 30 – the assumption to office of the senators – give a better picture, albeit not truly precise of the election outcome.

ACTUAL RESULTS IN 2004
1. Roxas, Manuel II
2. Revilla, Bong
3. Pimentel, Aquilino Jr
4. Madrigal, Jamby
5. Gordon, Richard
6. Cayetano, Pia
7. Santiago, Miriam Defensor
8. Lim, Alfredo
9. Enrile, Juan Ponce
10. Estrada, Jinggoy
11. Lapid, Manuel
12. Biazon, Rodolfo

POST ANALYSIS OF 2004
Roxas, Manuel II (No. 1)
Enrile, Juan Ponce (No. 9)
Tatad, Francisco
Revilla, Bong (No. 2)
Lim, Alfredo (No. 8)
Santiago, Miriam Defensor (No. 7)
Barbers, Robert
Gordon, Richard (No. 5)
Mercado, Orlando
Cayetano, Pia (No. 6)
Yasay, Perfecto Jr
Lapid, Manuel (No. 11)

As can be seen, in the postdicted column there were four losing candidates (in italics) included in the winning slate, while four winners -- Estrada, Biazon, Pimentel and Madrigal -- are not in the first twelve. I can only justify the outcome by mentioning the lack of astrological factors used, particularly those that are affected by the absence of their birth times. Possibly. (There’s also the possibility that the quantification of the astrological factors is not the appropriate design for the study.)

Even with the doubtful results of the method reported above, I shall still present some striking features of the horoscopes of some of the candidates. Even if I have my own senatorial choices, there are candidates whose potentials embedded in their birth charts offer promises of effective services. These candidates have significant planetary pictures or combinations of planets that have transcendent meanings and effects, and good indicators of their characters..

Of particular importance is the presence of the yod formation, or so-called Finger of God, in the natal chart. It indicates that the destiny is to fulfill a particular mission. As an astrologer said, the yod “points to the ultimate challenge and goal” for a person. For instance, Dr. Carl Jung, the eminent psychologist, has a yod pointing to Pluto, the planet of secrets, of obsessions, and the Unconscious. On the other hand, Dr. Alfred Einstein has his yod pointing to Uranus, which is obviously the planet of nuclear power. (By the way, Senator Juan Ponce Enrile has three yods!)

The following candidates have the yod formation in their natal horoscopes: Noynoy Aquino (GO), Joker Arroyo (TEAM), Martin Bautista (Kapatiran), Alan Cayetano (GO), Antonio Trillanes (GO), and Manuel Zubiri (TEAM).

One other planetary formation that could be considered fortunate (with some challenge) is the Kite. The candidates with this formation are: Francis Escudero (GO), Antonio Trillanes (GO), and Manuel Villar (GO).

The third significant planetary formation is the Mystic Rectangle, both very good and very difficult. Two candidates have this pattern: Mike Defensor (TEAM) and Antonio Trillanes (GO). One other candidate, Mario Ongkiko of Kapatiran, has this pattern, but he had withdrawn from the race. (The interpretation of the Mystic Rectangle is a bit arcane. Senator Bong Revilla has it and I am puzzled how he actualizes that potential in his career.)

I am particularly interested in Trillanes, the candidate having the mentioned three planetary pictures. The focal point in his yod is the Midheaven or public honor. I would expect him to serve with honor in any public position he occupies.

I offer this study to other astrologers. I am open to dispute if only to hone the power of astrology to determine human destinies through replicable methods of analysis.